Coronavirus Update #1

This will be the first of what I hope will be periodic posts about coronavirus. I expect I will be spending a lot of time in the hospital, actually fighting the virus, so my thoughts may be sporatic. But I want to share my perspective when I can.

I've been watching the pandemic, as everyone has. I've been following Italy more closely than anywhere else, because Italy is America in about 4-6 weeks, if we don't step up in a big way. No partisanship, no blame game. Or we're Italy.

The Italian numbers are starting to improve. Today Italy reported 5560 new cases and and 651 deaths. That's bad. HOWEVER, that is a decline of 15% in new cases and 18% in deaths from yesterday. Italy has been in lockdown for about 2 weeks, so this may prove that an Italian-style lockdown can work.

We will know more in the next few days, as Italian numbers continue to come in. For now, I am encouraged.

If Italy can control the pandemic, what does that mean for us? By my napkin calculations (and I do not claim to be an epidemiologist, just a medical doctor who has some experience with health statistics), Italy could top out at around 10,000 deaths, if trends continue. For the U.S., a nation roughly 6 times larger, that translates into 60,000 deaths for us -- if we use the same precautions. That's a big number, but right now I would thank God for 60,000 deaths. 

The big problem is, for us and Italy and everyone else, what happens after we have capped deaths with a lockdown? Do we go out of lockdown? Will there be a second wave of infections after we do? Maybe.

But if we can stay in lockdown for 8 weeks or so and control the rate of infection, in 8 weeks things will be a little better. We will have time to build more ventilators and get caught up on protective devices. Hospitals will be able to get outfitted to better handle more COVID patients. There is a new COVID test coming out that gives results in about an hour -- maybe by then we will be able to do the widespread testing we desperately need. It will be a little soon to expect effective treatment, but the more time we buy, the better our odds.

Understand that 3 million deaths is not off the table! In fact, I expect 3 million deaths if we don't put out a max effort. Keep in mind that if the Italian strategy works, if we do the same thing we will be saving on the order of 3 million Americans. 

Thats the same as saving every soldier in the U.S. Army during a war. That's a bronze star for all of us.